With all the theories in the news and the Internet regarding the clash between the police and Moro fighters in Mamasapano, Maguindanao last January 25, it’s hard to say really happened. While I can’t write (not yet) something and claim that it is what really happened during that fateful day, here are several theories regarding the Mamasapano Incident.
1. Liar, Liar
Theory: Government officials are lying (except for those ‘anonymous’ sources). It’s no surprise as they’ve lied to us many times before.
And there are just too many possible lies regarding Mamasapano. For example, why would Noynoy keep the operation from Mar Roxas for the benefit of PNP chief Purisima (see Theory #2) when the President wants the DILG Secretary to become as popular as possible?
Another is when Roxas explained the presence of Americans near the battlefield by saying that these could be U.S troops hosted by the Phil. Army’s 6th Infantry Division. Other news reports quoted the 6th ID as saying that the ‘G.I Joes’ were not from them (besides, there’s no military exercise ongoing).
(That American troops are not conducting any military actions inside our country is also a lie, but it’s a blog entry for another time)
Theory: The raid was personally planned and directed by disgraced PNP chief Alan Purisima in an attempt to ‘remove the stain’ left by corruption allegations against him.
This one sounds a bit weird. Yes, it is consistent with the character of Noynoy to protect his partymates and Cabinet officials with the same ferocity of his attacks against whom he perceives are his enemies. But isn’t the Mar 2016 presidential campaign (see Theory #1) more important than Purisima?
3. Mukhang Pera
Theory: The raid was primarily motivated by the desire to claim the $5 million bounty for the capture of the alleged terrorist ‘Marwan’.
Corollary: There is no ‘Marwan’. Either he was already dead, or he didn’t exist in the first place. Both are supported by human rights group Karapatan‘s report last year on a racket by the Armed Forces where they would arrest people at random, claim that they were either top-ranking Muslim or Communist ‘terrorists’, and claim the millions of pesos for themselves.
Corollary 2: If Marwan didn’t really exist, it could be because he was invented to justify the U.S conducting operations inside countries in Southeast Asia (see Theory #4).
The Internet is also full of claims that supposed Muslim terrorist groups were actually ‘invented’ (created and funded by U.S government agencies) and used to justify American military meddling in different parts of the world. What has been proven is that the U.S government funded the Taliban (a fundamentalist group in Afghanistan) against the Soviet Union. Two decades later, the U.S would invade Afghanistan while claiming to ‘free’ the country from the Taliban.
4. Made in the U.S.A
Theory: It was really an operation of the U.S armed forces. After all, the U.S government did not ask for any permission from its counterpart in Pakistan when they killed Osama bin Laden in the latter’s territory. And local activists have consistently claimed that the U.S military is fighting alongside the AFP against rebels in Mindanao.
Corollary: Wikileaks (for those living under a rock who do not know what Wikileaks is, click here) revealed several years ago that the U.S government backed the MILF in exchange for certain ‘deals’.
5. War is Business
Theory: Someone deliberately planned for the SAF operation to go all wrong and bloody, creating an excuse to call for the scrapping of the Bangsamoro Basic Law. It feels like there’s a ‘campaign’ (in which the Mamasapano indicent is part of) when you consider how politicians and media personalities all began saying ‘all-out war’.
In connection with Theory #4, it could be that the U.S does not want the BBL to succeed. So it planned a deliberately flawed operation which led to the deaths of dozens of policemen, and a public mood that is very much anti-Moro.
But it could also be the work of other people who do not want an end to hostilities in Mindanao. After all, no wars means less funding for the military, and less funding means less opportunities for corruption.
There are many theories, but here are two truths:
Sometimes there’s truth in old cliches. There can be no real peace without justice. And without resistance there will be no justice
– Arundhati Roy, 7 Nov. 2004
Where there is no justice there can be no secure peace.
– Aung San Suu Kyi, 2001
Quote of the Day:
One wonders if the President was simply inspired by Zero Dark Thirty when he approved the operations. One worries if the President has finished watching American Sniper and the things he might do next.
– Renato Reyes Jr.